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Post by mossback on Jan 2, 2006 13:00:24 GMT -8
Here's something I wonder if anyone has some ideas on?
I and my wife just returned from fishing in S. Texas. (Didn't dive due to catching a bad cold just before going down there) There was a noticable shortage of fish in the shallows this time of year, not just my observations but other salty old timers who fish every day.
Another item, dolphins, who normally migrate into the bays along the Texas Coast during Aug and Sept for feeding and mateing were there in Dec in extremely large numbers.
One could pass this off as due to the three hurricanes that came in during Aug thru Oct. Disrupting all the normal patterns for each species.........
However.......My wife, who is from Peru, was in contact with her mother last night and she reported the Bonito Tuna, which normally migrate thru the Peruvian South Pacific waters in the Feb/April time frame, were in abundance now.
My question is for those who live on either coast line of the US.........has anyone (fishermen or divers) mentioned odd timings for fish migrations?
Some of the old time fishermen are concerned something is about to happen or is happening in the gulf but I wonder if this more than that ......
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Post by SeaRat on Jan 2, 2006 22:42:53 GMT -8
From The Oregonian, 1-2-2006: What does the Gulf Stream have to do with the Gulf Coast--plenty. The Gulf Stream is in the Atlantic, where these tropical storms and hurricanes are born. The swing into the Gulf (how many this season?). Changes in the Gulf Stream would also indicate changes in the associated current pattern, including the Gulf of Mexico. You can see more here: www.bbc.co.uk/climate/impact/gulf_stream.shtmlThere are some more alarming writings, such as this: www.bbc.co.uk/climate/impact/gulf_stream.shtmlI don't know the validity of the alarms here (you will notice that the predicted "dissolution of the Gulf Stream" did not occur last year), but they do have practical advice that each of us could incorporate to lessen the amount of CO2 we individually release into the environment: What does this have to do with vintage diving? Well, a couple of thoughts here. First, since some of us have been around awhile, we can see changes, such as those made known in this thread by mossback. Second, when we dive older gear, we keep it in circulation, and don't feed the process that in manufacturing new gear, causes more pollution. Third, we can dive near home, and find the wonders of the underwater world locally, thereby saving a bunch an gasoline that we can invest in more vintage dive gear. John
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Post by nemrod on Jan 3, 2006 10:38:49 GMT -8
As a Geologist, and I actually am one with an MS plus 30, and di dwork in that field for a bit, I tend to dismiss most of the doom and gloom scenarios. Nonetheless, we should try to be good little residents of the global community each doing our part to keep things right.
Here are the facts, the earth has cycled in and out of ice ages for the last hundred of thousands of years. it is a known cycle. The root causes are numerous and complicated and not fully understood. The current position of Antartica does not help matters. The rise of homo sapiens has beneifitted from global warming, our entire species and civilization has occured in this one interglacial period which began roughly 20,000 years ago and marks geologically the Holocene (meaning recent). YEP, that is right, the earth has been globally warming for the past 20,000 years. At some point, mechanisms will kick in (disolution of the Gulf stream for example) and the earth will begin to cool. possibly rapidly. Nigel Calders Snow Blitz theory. Within a few generations the eath could cool into the beginning of a new ice age. Possibly our green house gas production may stave off this eventuallity but eventually the earth will cool again, it will happen. Let me put it this way, whoever is around say 250,000 years from now will be around on the other side of an iceage that cometh!! Oh, while traumatic for civilization and geo politcal bla-blah and other crap like that----a warm earth is not always a bad thing, the "warm" periods of the past and the shallow seas they provided were prolific in life. God, would I ever love to time warp back and dive the Great Permian Reef of Texas. Holy cow would they ever be a dive, talk about vintage. The future weather forcast immediantly is probably warm, but don't toss that coat just yet. Someone is going to need it sooner or later. James
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Post by SeaRat on Jan 3, 2006 12:21:57 GMT -8
There is actually a very interesting discussion, from which the above article was written, from Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute: www.whoi.edu/institutes/occi/currenttopics/climatechange_wef.htmlThis explains the changes that are now being documented, and it does show a chart of where we are now. It looks like Robert B. Gagosian, President and Director of Woods Hole, has some very interesting things to say about global warming and cooling, and it is the ocean current systems that have yet to really be factored into this situation. He provides several scenarios, and I'll let you read these. But the changes described above by mossback are perhaps some of the effects we are beginning to see. James (Nemrod) above is correct in that not all the factors are there yet, and while there may be an overall warming of the atmosphere, the complex dynamics of both the air currents and water currents may make some areas much colder, while others warm up and dry out. SeaRat
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Post by seakrakken on Jan 3, 2006 15:49:10 GMT -8
:-/I'm not so sure I would be diving the Great Permian Reef. Can you say MEGALADON
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Post by jrvance on Jan 3, 2006 16:22:34 GMT -8
a lot of the hype for global warming is based on climate warming in the past 5-10 years , during which there has been a large rise in solar activity (sunspots) resulting in , if i need to say it, ???more heat , and since when have computer climate models ever worked
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Post by SeaRat on Jan 3, 2006 18:24:19 GMT -8
jr, While sun flares produce radiation, it's probably not the kind that produces more heat. It is the kind that interfers with radio waves. Heat comes in the form of infrared radiation (IR), and that part of the spectrum is probably relatively constant inspite of the solar flares. The solar flares are protons and near-X-rays (extreme ultraviolet), and probably X-rays and other, more energetic radiation too. See: science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2000/ast14jul_2m.htmThat's why they are a danger to astronauts, because they can penetrate some substances and damage human cells if not checked by something. Here on the earth, we are protected by the earth's magnetic field, which deflects most of the radiation, although some of it is converted into visible form (the arora borialis, or Northern Lights). Here's more info: www.geo.mtu.edu/weather/aurora/SeaRat
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Post by Mossback on Jan 3, 2006 18:48:16 GMT -8
The Gulf of Mexico was recorded the warmest on record this last year, 2005. Explains the super Huricanes (that extra heat is like super unleaded for those storms)and I guess the dolphins in the island bays in dec/jan since they were undoubtably advoiding the hurricanes during their normal mating season..the water is still realtively warm.......
That said, been reading up on the global warming and this is what I found in a nut shell, at lease I'll try...someone correct me if I miss something.
There's this current called the great ocean conveyor belt, it is partly the warm water of the Gulf Stream but it also the North Alantic Deep Water, carrying cold water to the south, around the tip of south america up to the north Pacific where it warms up and then back approximately the same direction carrying warm water to the North Alantic. This keeps both the southern and northern climates moderate compared to what they'd be like without the conveyor moving cold and warm water around......much like a global airconditioner...........
Now, in the North Alantic, when the salt water freezes, and the salt sinks, and I mean a lot of it sinks.......something like 20 million tons per second. This helps drag the warm water of the Gulf Stream into the North Alantic and starts the conveyor belt moving. If this North Alantic water is diluted by fresh water, the amount of salt sinking is also reduced and slows the great ocean conveyor belt down......it could even shut it down.......if that happens, it gets colder in the polar regions (read ice age) and hotter in the tropics. ( a boon for aircondition companies)...this might explain the bonito in the pacific off Peru ahead of season...
The Arctic is shrinking, melting, and that's fresh water we are talking about..........too much fresh water and Searat might have to invest in some snowshoes and a husky team. Lets hope that doesn't happen.
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Post by jrvancealt on Jan 3, 2006 19:55:48 GMT -8
solar flares also produce ultra violet rays , and when uv-rays enter the atmosphere they are in a sense blocked, and turn into heat
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Post by SeaRat on Jan 3, 2006 20:36:31 GMT -8
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Post by nemrod on Jan 4, 2006 11:21:22 GMT -8
Ever been to McKitrick Canyon? I probably mispelled, I cannot spell, never had time to learn, anyway, oh, and not being able to see doens't help. It is a living "fossil" forest. At the end of the last glacial interlude that portion of Texas was much cooler and moist. The forest were abundent. Now the remaining forests that have survived hide in the canyons where a microclimate is created. These forests are fragile and will eventually die out on their own. It is not worth trying to sum up all the changes that would exist in our climate during an ice age, the tropics would be hoter and dryer, mostly, middle lattitudes would be cooler and moist, much of north america and europe and on and on would have ice pack. This does not occur overnight. A shift towards a cooling trend is possible and there is not room here to go into that but that the "ocean conveyer system" mentioned is one means of heat energy distribution, trade winds and global atmospheric circulation and storms like hurricanes distribute the energy and consume it. Like a locomotive these forces don't just turn around in a day or a decade or even a hundred years. Do some looking into the "Little Ice Age". This was a very cool period in our current interglacial. The solar albedo and solar cycles were and still are favorite to hang climate changes upon. Solar imprint is huge but subtle and directly linking flare cyles to weather is problematic. We just don't know enough. All of our climate forecasting virtually draws it's knowledge from the past few hundred years which from a geological standpoit is NOTHING, to small a sample to be relevent. That is why geology needs to be factored in, the past is the key to the present. Man's activiteis are impacting the climate but to say we are the cause of a process that has been in action since before we existed as a species is a bit much. The climate has not been stable for the last 20,000 or so years, it has been changing and warming, civilizations have risen and fallen influneced by these changes, but, we know have something we never had before, technology, we have the ability know to insulate ourselves and our civilization and even influence the climate. before such a thing as deliberately influeincing he climate were done one might want to think down the road and consider the potential effects. Changing circulation patterns, ocean and atmospere are part of the global thermostat, they are correctly acting and functioning as it should--right now, the earth is doing what it has done forever. If we screw it up on purpose such as trying to stop global warming (other than removing our imput to it) we could throw the thermostat out of wack, this would not be good thing. Pandorah's box.
I still want to dive the Permian Reef.
James
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Post by SeaRat on Jan 4, 2006 20:41:04 GMT -8
Nemrod,
I'll be your dive buddy for Permian Reef. It should be interesting. You're the geologist, and I'll be the zoologist. It may mean some new species will be added, but I have one question. How do we get back?
John
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Post by mossback on Jan 5, 2006 11:15:44 GMT -8
Y'all won't..........y'all just be a tasty morsel for the Megaladon...... but if you do......bring me back a bunch of living crinoids........(sp)
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Post by nemrod on Jan 5, 2006 11:42:37 GMT -8
Let me get with Art Bell on that, he seems to know a guy that knows a guy! I will be diving my Double 50s, RAM, oh, a big knife and a 50cal. BMG bang stick with auto loading cassete just in case. Nemrod
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Post by treasureman on Jan 7, 2006 11:14:17 GMT -8
Scientists have noticed that the sun has increaded its tempertaure .003 of a degree farenheit. over the last few years. Normal meaurements to this date were in the area of an increase of .00125 degrees to 002 degrees. The xtar .001 degrees it has gone up is equivbalent to doubling the effect of greenhouse gases on earth.. we cannot cool the sun down, we cannot stop it from gettin g hotter. Have any of you niticed over the last 20 years or so, that teh sun used to have a nice yellowish glow, and today it has a white glow to it.
Frankly i think this kyoto crap is just that. Flawed models and a means to keep the people in panic
Just some observations and my two cents worth.
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